The 8 states where 2020 will be won or lost: A POLITICO deep dive. See why nearly a quarter of a million subscribers begin their day with the Starting 5. States of the Race. Experts generally agree that the key swing states to focus on this year are Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin—all of which were won by Trump in 2016. Staff in each of those areas have signed contracts to work on the election effort through November, The Washington Post reported last week. US election 2020: Who will win the US presidential election? Track the most competitive presidential swing states and key Senate races. In 2018, Democrats picked up two House seats in Iowa but lost the gubernatorial race. newspaper archive. See today's front and back pages, download the newspaper, States that he expects to go their way but won't take for granted are Florida, North Carolina and Arizona. He has hovered around 50 percent in recent weeks and has had a 10-point lead on occasions. DON'T MISSUS Election 2020: Could Donald Trump stay president even if he loses? "It's really not one person, one vote. The U.S. election system faced heavy criticism in 2016 after Trump was elected president after losing the popular vote by nearly 3 million votes. Here's what you need to know about 2020 swing states and their role in the Electoral College. Please see our Privacy Notice for details of your data protection rights. There are some permanent swing states, such as Florida - but others change on the run up to an election. order back issues and use the historic Daily Express Clinton won the state in 2016, and Obama had won it both in 2008 and 2012. These Six States Could Determine the 2020 Presidential Election | U.S. At the moment, polls in the battleground states look good for Mr Biden, but there's a long way to go and things can change very quickly. Most states nearly always vote the same way, meaning that in reality there are just a handful of states where both candidates stand a chance of winning. According to Maslin, if their nominee takes the Sunshine State, then the Democrats would only need to win one more of the swing states to be successful. "There will be others that'll be important in varying degrees," he said, "but those will be ones we'll ultimately look back on and say, 'How many of them did Democrats win back and were they able to win enough to win the presidency?'". The 2020 election between President Donald Trump and the eventual Democratic nominee could come down to just half a dozen states. Express. Swing states have populations that are finely politically divided between Democrat and Republican. Within each of these swing states, the roadmap ahead for President Donald Trump and Joe Biden is … Billionaire Michael Bloomberg is making those areas a centerpiece of his revised 2020 agenda for Democrats. The former New York City mayor abandoned his own White House run this week after a disastrous Super Tuesday performance and endorsed former Vice President Joe Biden. According to the latest polls, both states are expected to support Trump in November. "Most of these states are places that have been competitive over the last several presidential elections. Florida is perhaps the most well known swing state, and arguably the most important. "The Electoral College creates these strange incentives for campaigns to ignore most of the country and pour their attention into a small number of places," Barry Burden, a professor of political science and director of the Elections Research Center at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, told Newsweek. The founding fathers chose not to elect US presidents by direct popular vote over fears that larger and more populous states could have an outsized role in deciding the winner. The polls suggest Mr Biden has big leads in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin - three industrial states Mr Trump won by margins of less than one percent to clinch victory in 2016. The 2018 midterm elections also cemented Virginia as a blue state. "Those are the areas that will probably decide the election for us," he said. Coronavirus map LIVE: UK will use Oxford vaccine first, Brussels trade pact with US set to secure cheaper prices for UK. Use our maps, polls and analysis to follow top battlegrounds in the 2020 election. Iowa and Ohio have become reliably more Republican over the past few years. In the past, states like Iowa, Ohio and Virginia have been the areas to watch on Election Day. The electoral college system does usually reflect the popular vote – presidents have won the electoral vote while losing the popular vote just five times in US history. While Obama carried those states in each of his campaigns, Trump won them comfortably in 2016. On the GOP side, Republican pollster Neil Newhouse sees Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin as "critical" to Trump's re-election. — While these states are up for grabs in 2020, there are signs that these states have been becoming more hospitable to Republicans over the past couple of decades. Bloomberg's soon-to-be-formed super PAC will focus on advertising in those six critical swing states. On the other hand, states that used to be reliable but are moving into swing-state territory include Texas and Georgia. We will use your email address only for sending you newsletters. If they don't take Florida, then they need to win all three of the industrial Midwest states: Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Supporters of Democratic White House hopeful Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders wait for him to speak during a campaign rally at the Convention Center in Los Angeles, California on March 1, 2020. When there's a discrepancy between the popular vote and the Electoral College, it often works to the advantage of Republicans. They are all states which Mr Trump won narrowly against Mrs Clinton in 2016, helping him secure his electoral college victory. They're continually of interest because they appear open to swinging back and forth from one party to the other," Burden said. In fact, such a scenario has happened twice in the last five presidential elections: George W. Bush in 2000 and Trump in 2016. But the once-purple states are not even considered major players heading into the 2020 race. If current trends from the 2012 and 2016 elections continue, the closest results in 2020 will occur in: ArizonaFloridaMaineMichiganMinnesotaNebraska's second congressional districtNevadaNew HampshireNorth CarolinaPennsylvaniaand Wisconsin, ColoradoGeorgiaIowaNew MexicoOhioTexasVirginia. "Voters in these states should expect to see a lot of advertising, a lot of visits from the candidates and their surrogates, and a ton of field activity with offices opening and volunteers appearing at their door," Burden added. They also came incredibly close to winning congressional and gubernatorial races in Florida. He also turned Florida red again after it had gone for Barack Obama in both of his White House runs. Home of the Daily and Sunday Express. But if the nominee doesn't win the presidency, he said calls to abandon the Electoral College will increase. The polls suggest Mr Biden has big leads in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin - three industrial states Mr Trump won by margins of less than one percent to … What makes it so special is that the winner in Florida has won the presidency in every presidential race since 1964 - making it the key state to look out for in every election. It's all about the Electoral College, and in the Electoral College there are these six to 10 states that really matter," Newhouse said. With that caveat aside, Joe Biden has been ahead of Donald Trump in national polls for most of the year. But 2018 signaled another shift. US election: Several key states will decide the outcome of the election, Swing states: Each state has a number of votes dependent on population, South China Sea news: China moves military vessels to contested region, Joe Biden: Biden is currently leading in the polls, China threat: Trump warns Beijing will ‘own’ US if Biden wins election, Donald Trump snub: The reason why the President does not wear a ring, Donald Trump boost in US election poll over 'acceptable' COVID figures, Donald Trump: Mr Trump is currently not expected to win a second term, Why Biden ‘may be more useful President to Brexit Britain than Trump’. To become president either candidate needs to win a majority of the 538 electors, so more than 270 electors. But experts say it could happen again in 2020. He's now using his wealth and resources to boost the Democratic nominee in the general election. It swings between major parties — the state supported Democrat Barack Obama in 2008 and Republican George W Bush in 2000, for instance. The American voting system is very different to ours - even though Americans go out and cast their vote for either Mr Biden or Mr Trump this year, they are actually voting on a state level, not a national level. US Election 2020: Could Donald Trump stay president even if he loses? Votes are cast for the Electoral College in all 50 states - and the amount of college seats in each state is proportionate to its population. It was a surprise in 2016 when Trump flipped the "blue wall" in the Midwest—Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin—by the slimmest of margins. He acknowledged there's a "strong possibility" that Trump is re-elected but fails to win over the most voters. [ANALYSIS]US Election 2020 key dates: The most important dates YOU need to know [TIMELINE]Melania Trump and Ivanka Trump slammed for ditching face masks [REPORT]. Burden, the political scientist from the University of Wisconsin-Madison, also expects the Democratic nominee to win the popular vote in 2020. Democrats swept the Senate and gubernatorial races in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin during the last election cycle. This year North Carolina, Florida, Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Arizona could all be decisive in the election's outcome. All but two states - Maine and Nebraska – use a winner-takes-all system, so if you win the most votes in a state, you take its entire haul of electoral college votes. The polls in 2016 were much less clear, with only a few percentage points separating the two candidates. "To some extent, it's not really a national election. Democrats picked up three House seats and one Senate seat during the contest. ", You have 4 free articles remaining this month, Sign-up to our daily newsletter for more articles like this + access to 5 extra articles. US Election 2020 key dates: The most important dates YOU need to know, Melania Trump and Ivanka Trump slammed for ditching face masks. The most recent instance was in 2016, when Mr Trump won the electoral college but Hillary Clinton, his Democratic opponent, won the popular vote. In 2020, a win in Florida would be huge for Democrats. The 2020 election between President Donald Trump and the eventual Democratic nominee could come down to just half a dozen states. Those Republican strongholds with rapidly diversifying populations have been added to the Democratic National Committee's target lists for 2020. — The 2020 election may effectively be decided by six crucial swing states, all of which featured margins of less than two percentage points in 2016. Between elections, they swing from one party to another - unlike solid states such as California, which has always voted blue. To continue reading login or create an account. November 3 marks one of the most important elections of our time, when Joe Biden and Donald Trump will go head-to-head in the race for the US presidency. Republicans also held onto the governor's mansion in Ohio. "If there is another mismatch where one party wins the electoral vote and another wins the popular vote, you are going to hear even more complaints that the system is unfair," he said. Following the coronavirus crisis and persistent civil unrest, America may be more divided than ever - but one thing all agree on is how high the stakes are. Here, a list and map of the swing states that could determine a Democratic or Republican victory in the 2020 presidential election. "Those will be the six most critical states," Paul Maslin, a longtime Democratic pollster who worked on the presidential campaigns of Jimmy Carter and Howard Dean, told Newsweek. Retaining them is crucial to his re-election hopes - but polls in all states are favouring Mr Biden over the president.
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